Be wary of Wall Street’s euphoria, because the stock market is out of sync with economic fundamentals. The stock market continues to set new records, but current economic indicators paint a fuzzy picture.

The most important economic indicators are sluggish at best. They point to a slippery slope ahead, not to the good times suggested by the stock market’s recent performance- so look at other indicators and beware of false signals.

To determine how the economy is doing overall, the Gazelle Index staff looked beyond the stock market. Why? Because it is important to keep in mind that stock indexes often post their best performances when the economy is growing very slowly.

When the economy is growing slowly, inflation does not pose a scare to investors. Also, today corporations have stock piled so much cash and invested so little, that money must find profitable outlets that can generate a reasonable return. Given the dismal return in bonds, the stock market is the logical choice.

Therefore, the Gazelle Index looks beyond the market at some of the most important benchmarks of current economic activity. While it is important to monitor how the stock market is doing, it would be foolish to judge the state of the economy by what is happening on Wall Street.

Economists and market watchers follow certain fundamental economic indicators very closely. They look for signs that tell them what is happening now and what to expect in the future.

By understanding sensitive indicators , investors, market watchers and ordinary persons can determine how changes that are occurring and might affect their savings, investment portfolios, job opportunities and retirement outlook.

Congress has allowed the sequester (i.e. massive cuts in government spending) to remain in place. Therefore economic indicators are important to them because they reveal signs about employment and unemployment – a hot button political issue. If employment continues to worsen as it did last month, elected officials may pay a price for the sequester at the ballot box.

Business owners follow indicators because they provide signals about the wisdom of hiring, making a capital investment or ordering inventory.

All economic indicators are not equal; some are more important than others are. The relevance of a particular indicator depends upon how sensitive it is relative to day-to-day, weekly, monthly or quarterly changes in economic activity.

The best indicators are those which are most sensitive to changes in the business cycle—a term used frequently by economists. A business cycle is the regular pattern of ups and downs in the economy. Most people refer to them as recessions and expansions.

However, the business cycle has four phases: an expansion phase (sometimes called a recovery or growth stage). Believe it or not, the US has been in a recovery since June of 2009. It does not seem so because so few jobs have created.

Business cycles have three other phases as well: a peak (the top of the cycle—this occurred last in November of 2007); a contraction (usually called a recession—the Great Recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009); a trough (the bottom or lowest point of a recession).

The phases of the business cycle resemble the up and down patterns of a wave. The positive incline of the wave represents the expansion. The top of the wave represents the peak. The downside of the wave represents the recession, and the bottom is the trough.

Over the last 50 years, the expansion has lasted five years. Incidentally, we have had 11 business cycles since 1949, and 35 since 1854, the very first one.

Important Indicators to Watch

Job Creation and Unemployment: The monthly report on employment and unemployment is the most closely watched indicator of current economic conditions. The percent of workers unemployed is created from a survey of 60,000 households. The unemployment rate for March (reported the first Friday of April) was 7.6%. The unemployment rate for blacks (13.3%) is usually twice the unemployment rate among whites (6.7%).

The overall rate of unemployment declined in March because 496,000 fewer people were in the labor market. As people leave the labor market, they are no longer counted in the unemployment tabulation. The next unemployment report will be released on Friday, May 3^rd. It is estimated that the unemployment rate will remain the same or increased slightly to 7.7%.

The change in payroll employment: This indicator comes from a broad national survey of 440,000 business establishments, and it measures the number of new jobs firms added to their payrolls. In March the number was surprisingly low– only 88,000. The estimated number of new jobs created for the upcoming report on May 3^rd between 135,000 and 155,000. While this is the most closely watched figure regarding the labor market, this number is also adjusted regularly in subsequent months. For example, the original February number of 236,000 new jobs was adjusted upward to 268,000 in March.

Initial claims for unemployment compensation: This provides a signal about whether firms are continuing to lay off workers or whether the labor market is improving. The figure is reported weekly and the most-recent number, reported April 13 was 339,000. That is a good sign that the labor market is improving.

Personal Savings Rate: Before workers are paid, employers subtract taxes and other withholding from their paycheck. What remains is disposable income. The income is either spent, or if it is saved (investments are considered saving). Consumer spending accounts for over 70% of all spending in the economy.

A decrease in savings can occur for two reasons; either consumers have decided to spend more out of their disposable income, or they have less disposable income to spend or save. In March, consumer saving was 2.7% which is among the lowest points it has reached during the current economic recovery. The decline in savings was also accompanied by a decline in retail spending which means the increase in taxes that occurred because of the negotiations over the fiscal Cliff have cut into disposable income and therefore reduced savings and spending.

Important Indicators other than Housing are Sluggish

• Housing Starts: Increase from 968,000 to 1,036,000 over the last month
• Auto and Truck Sales: Remained constant at 15.2 million units in March
• Retail and Food Sales: Declined last month,  -.4%
• Case-Shiller Housing Price Index: housing prices increase by 1.2% between Jan and Feb
• Consumer Sentiment: Declined between March and April to 76.4
• Gross Domestic Product: Grew by 2.5% during the first quarter of 2013

The stock market continues to break new ground, but for the majority of Americans and in particular for small and minority business owner, this development has little meaning.

There continues to be large numbers of unemployed Black and Hispanic workers, and the fiscal crisis of the government is causing them great difficulty; especially minority contractors. The latter are much more dependent on public sector contracting opportunities than are non-minorities.

The economy has undergone a roller coaster recovery that has lasted four years. The slow growth has been accompanies by the bickering in Washington, the results of which are now playing themselves out in a slowdown in jobs and loss of consumer confidence.

While the Dow is climbing toward 15,000, the majority of the population is hurting:

• Only 88,000 new jobs were created last month, March
• Unemployment decreased to 7.6% mainly because almost one-half million fewer persons were in the labor market.
• Consumer spending and confidence decreased

Those developments outweighed the fact that:

• There were fewer new claims for unemployment compensation
• The price of oil was lower
• Housing starts increased significantly

Because of the sequester, the economy is showing only sporadic signs of life.  In fact, there is a numbing quietness regarding the effects of the budget cuts on low income families.

It is noteworthy that Congress lifted the sequester regarding cut back on airport security (presumable lawmakers could travel home for recess conveniently). At the same time, certain segments of the economy are in crisis; especially those dependent on head start, Medicaid and Medicare, public housing assistance and special education programs.

Black Americans comprise 11.9% of the U.S workforce, but make up 20.2% of unemployed workers. As we approach June of this year, it will be the fourth anniversary since the “great recession” ended and the recovery began.

However, blacks continue to experience an unemployment crisis and Congress is still hopelessly embroiled in budget debates and

The deep cuts caused by the sequester, which no one is discussing nowadays, is having a predictable impact on the economy. Consumer retail spending is slowing down and as a result, fewer jobs are being created.

Even when there were more government resources, black unemployment was not a priority to most lawmakers in Washington. Now that there are even fewer resources, unemployed blacks can forget about assistance from Washington.

Hence, more non-government solutions must be identified to attack the crisis of Black unemployment.

This means we must think out of the box to find solutions to this crisis.  Mobile broadband technology and black business development are potentially important vehicles for job creation.

Why Mobile and Minority Business Development?

The last presidential election illustrated how fast the racial and ethnic composition of the electorate is changing.  What most people are not yet aware of is the rapid change in the complexion of the small business sector.  Minorities now own one-in-five of the nation’s 27 million small businesses and they account for 5.8 million jobs.

More importantly, the number of minority businesses is increasing three times faster than that of non-minority businesses. This means minority companies are increasingly well positioned to contribute to job creation and economic recovery.

These companies still face significant racial and market barriers. In fact, numerous authoritative studies have documented racial disparities in loans to black and Hispanic business owners. Yet bank loans are often crucial to starting and growing early-stage small businesses successfully.

Mobile broadband can lessen this problem because it is a low cost innovative platform on which minorities can start, operate and scale businesses without relying so heavily on external loans.

In November 2011 national survey of 632 minority and non-minority CEOs who operated businesses with 10 to 100 employees, it was found that 47.4% of minority business owners would “definitely increase hiring” if the government made small-business loans more easily accessible. The comparable percentage for non-minority owners was 23.7%.

Research has found that on average Blacks are less likely to receive bank loans and when they do, they pay higher financing fees.  Today’s new regulatory environment has made small business loans even harder to get.

Mobile broadband technology is promising because it allows minority businesses to sidestep some lending barriers. Each year hundreds of thousands of mobile applications, products and services are commercialized, marketed and scaled cheaply.

Black and Hispanic business owners have an added natural market advantage. Their households lead the nation in the adoption and usage of mobile devices. A recent Pew Research study found that about two-thirds of Black and Latino wireless consumers used mobile devices for online access, while only one-half of whites did.

Mobile technology can also provide other socioeconomic benefits to Black communities. Some examples include greater access to distance learning and continuing education degrees at lower costs; improvements in financial literacy, wealth building and access to online banking; greater savings as a result of price comparison shopping made possible with mobile devices; greater knowledge of and access to government services; and better ways to lead a healthier lifestyle.

Research also shows that two-thirds of the workforce in high-performing Black-owned businesses is Black and those businesses are more likely to locate their headquarters in Black communities.

No matter what the final outcome of the debt ceiling debates, the need to create more jobs and do so independently of government involvement is critically important.

The parade of bad news on the economy is more of a drizzle than a shower; nonetheless, it is still bad news. Highlighted by last Friday’s March Jobs Report that disappointed almost all analysts, the news this week has not been much better.

Today, The National Federation of Independent Businesses released its survey results on small businesses. It pointed to declining confidence among small-business owners over the last several months and a more pessimistic outlook about the future. The negative outlook was reflected in current hiring plans, retail sales, inventories and job openings.

The small-business pessimism is consistent the declining number of new jobs created, as reflected in the most-recent unemployment report. The unemployment rate fell in March from 7.7% to 7.6%, but the decline was due largely to about one-half million fewer workers participating in the labor market.

When workers drop out of the labor market, they are not counted in the official unemployment statistics.

Given the latest disappointing employment report, the market is now searching for good news. Fortunately, except for reports on retail sales and consumer confidence, this week will be relatively quiet when it comes to the release of economic indicators.

If the economy continues to meander along its current path, it will become increasingly more difficult to avoid the onset of a mild recession. In fact, the average length of an expansion in the post-World War II era is five years and the current expansion has lasted four years.

The good news is the stock market rally is continuing to keep investor confidence stable. However, should this confidence falter, it will bleed over into the rest of the economy, accelerating the downturn.

In 2009, the SBA (Small Business Administration) made a commitment to increase lending through the 7a Program as a way of offsetting credit market tightening caused by the recession and financial meltdown. Since that time, guaranteed loans to black-owned businesses have declined by 47%, while loans to businesses owned by Asians increased by 21%.

To offset bank cutbacks in small business lending, in 2009 the SBA substantially increased lending to small firms. The increase lending was primarily executed through its 7a Program, which provides banks with guarantees against loan default.

The results of this increased lending activity are summarized in Table 1, which tracks 7a loan approvals nationwide between 2009 and 2011 for all firms that were operating during the period, including Asian-owned firms and African American-owned small businesses.

It is particularly noteworthy that SBA loan volume increased substantially in 2010, in comparison to 2009. Overall, loan approvals rose from 30,513 to 38,464 nationwide, and loans to Asian-owned firms increased from 4,439 to 5,261.

In contrast, the number of loans approved to black-owned small firms fell from 2,711 in 2009 to 1,601 in 2010 and to 1,410 in 2011. The 47% decrease in the number of loans caused the share of black business SBA 7a loan approvals to decline from 8.9% in 2009 to 3.7% in 2011.

According to Marie Johns, Deputy Administrator of the SBA, “at the SBA, we are committed to supporting minority-owned small businesses” (February 7^th, 2013 press release honoring Black History Month). The 7a program is the primary tool used by SBA to achieve this objective

Nevertheless, lending to black-owned firms appears to have declined rapidly, leading one to question the extent of SBA and the Obama Administration’s commitment to black-owned businesses.

Since banks, not the SBA, are the initiators of SBA-guaranteed loans, the authors examined a nationally representative sample of young firms that applied for loans, to discern the lending priorities of banks.

Data, drawn from the Kauffman Firm Survey, allowed the authors to identify traits of young small firms that were successful in borrowing from banks between 2007 and 2010.

Focusing exclusively on firms located in urban zip-codes where minorities were predominant, we found that among those applying for bank loans in 2007, 51% of the owners had personal net worth of $250,000 or more and 43.3% had very high credit scores. Although minorities owned nearly half of all young small businesses in the neighborhoods examined, they accounted for less than 35% of the loan applicants.

The analysis found that major factors used by banks to differentiate successful loan applicants from those rejected were credit scores and owners’ personal net worth.

Both factors are used extensively as screening criteria for evaluating young firms that lack established track records. Bankers seek borrowers with collateral and strong credit ratings as protection against default risk.

While the objective of SBA is to make more loans available by passively reacting to bank requests for loan guarantees, SBA has simply accommodated itself to this risk aversion strategy, which is part of the legacy of the financial-market chaos of 2007-2010.

The net result of this SBA accommodation is that lending to black-owned small businesses has apparently fallen to the bottom of bankers’ priority.

As such, SBA’s verbal commitment of support for minority-owned businesses, when viewed in light of actual lending patterns, strikes us as insincere at best – especially when it comes to blacks.

 - -Tim Bates is an educator, consultant, prodigious author and one of the country’s leading authorities on minority-owned businesses. Alicia Robb is a Senior Research Fellow with the Kauffman Foundation and co-author of the new book, A Rising Tide: Financial Strategies for Women-owned Firms.

Over the last several weeks, a sense of euphoria engulfed the economy as stock markets reached record highs.

In the midst of the euphoria, politicians and market analysts concluded the effects of sequester were greatly overstated. Furthermore, despite the draconian cuts to many social programs, the economy would move along just fine. However, Friday’s jobs report was a sobering reality check.

In every respect the Labor Department’s report was a bad outcome. The market expected 190,000 new jobs to be created, following last month’s creation of 268,000 jobs. Instead, only 95,000 jobs were added, and less than that (88,000) when one subtracts away 7000 jobs that were cut by the government sector.

The retail trade sector lost 24,000 jobs, a clear sign that consumers are cutting back on spending significantly. Furthermore, the fact that the unemployment rate declined from 7.7% to 7.6% was irrelevant, because the decline was caused by shrinkage of the labor market; that is 496,000 fewer workers were in the labor market over the last month.

More telling, the household survey indicated there were 206,000 fewer employed workers in March. So in essence, the decline in the unemployment was caused by a smaller number of unemployed workers being counted in the survey.

Perhaps the sobering employment news will lead those in Congress who were celebrating the success of sequester the sit down and deal with the effects it is having on the economy in a more realistic manner.

The economy, which was once braced for significant growth is now crawling along at a snail’s pace. It may very well enter into a new recession if it continues to lose momentum.

One of the fundamental lessons of economics is “there is no such thing as a free lunch”. Those who thought the pain of sequester was drastically overstated must now face reality.

The sequester means pain across many segments of the economy, but most especially among working-class and low income individuals whose dollars retailers count on for selling products and maintaining jobs.

As U.S. stock markets continue to break new ground, a fundamental question remains. What will happen to millions of unemployed workers, and is the current economic growth sustainable enough to make a real difference?

While the government and analysts are reveling in the latest positive economic indicators, what they have forgotten is for vast segments of the unemployed population, these developments will not matter at all.

Instead, the government must focus on several unique barriers to full employment more explicitly. Those barriers will not be crumbled by a run-up in the stock market and more positive economic indicators. Yet they continue to leave leaving millions of workers unemployed and underemployed.

The Positive Economic Indicators

The Dow closed up 91 points on Friday to reach 14,512. Increasingly, economic signs indicate the recent run-up in equities is not a fluke but is based on solid fundamentals. Corporations sat on the sidelines hoarding record amounts of cash for the last several years. Now, their investment and spending is accelerating. Many important economic indicators showed significant strength over the last month. For example:

Last month the economy created 236,000; jobs more than twice the amount added the month before.

The unemployment rate dropped .2% of a percent from 7.9% to 7.7%

Total hours worked in the economy increased 1% last month following a -.3% decline the previous month

New claims for unemployment compensation continue to decline, reaching 336,000 last week

Domestic oil prices declined by $3.00 per barrel over the last month

Consumers spent more and save less over the last month, retail expenditures increased by 1.1%

Housing starts and auto sales continue to increase

The Continuing Challenge of Unemployment

Despite the robust signs of economic growth, several fundamental facts remain when it comes to the issue of unemployment.

1. First, the burden of unemployment falls heaviest upon Blacks and Latinos. They comprise 40% of all unemployed workers. Therefore, unless economic growth is creating opportunities for this segment of workers, the overall employment picture will remain dismal.
2. Second, 30% of all workers displaced during the last recession were in manufacturing and 30% in construction related industries. As such, there must be sufficient manufacturing and construction jobs generated to absorb the large numbers displace during the economic crisis.
3. Finally, economic growth is important, but growth alone will not reduce unemployment to normal levels among the segments noted above.

The factors contributing to high rates of Black and Latino unemployment are the following: disadvantages in the distribution of jobs and occupations (Blacks and Latinos are in more low skilled and temporary jobs), lower rates of educational attainment, extreme wealth inequality, high rates of incarceration, poorly functioning and unresponsive public education systems especially in large urban areas, and a spatial mismatch between where jobs are located and where most Blacks and Latinos live.

Major factors affecting manufacturing employment include global competition, which is driving production jobs away from the country and forcing corporations to use more laborsaving technologies.

Unless Congress and the Administration develop a strategy to confront these unique challenges, there will continue to be an ever widening gap between the privileged few who are benefiting most from the run-up in equities, and the massive numbers of working-class Americans who are struggling to maintain a basic quality of life.

Last week, the Dow Jones reached a new record of 14,539, and close on Friday down slightly at 14,514. At the same time, the S&P closed the week at 15,060.70 and NASDAQ closed at 3249.07. The news underlying the stock market gain reinforced the perception that economic advances are real and sustainable, not illusory.

Favorable economic indicators included initial claims for unemployment compensation (a measure of job layoffs). New claims declined significantly to 332,000, from the previous monthly level of 351,000.

The decline dovetailed the positive labor market report which showed that 236,000 new jobs were created in February and the unemployment rate declined to 7.7%. Both outcomes exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Other positive developments reported during the week included a modest decline in oil prices from $95.30 a barrel to $92.50. Declines in oil prices boost consumer spending; indeed, consumer retail and food service expenditures increased significantly over the previous month (1.1% in February as compared to .2% in January).

In related developments, industrial production picked up from 0% growth in January to .7% growth in February. This caused firms to increase their capacity utilization; a good thing since it means more workers will be demanded.  The value of the dollar also increased from an index value of 74.6 to 76.1, this reflected the record rise of the stock market. Specifically, the appreciation of US equities means that foreigners are moving money into US markets and demanding dollars to do so. This has caused a rise in the value of the dollar.

There are significant items to watch during the coming week that will give a gauge on the sustainability of the current economic trend. These include housing starts, building permits, new claims for unemployment compensation, existing home sales, and the index of leading economic indicators.

On the political front, Congressional Republicans and Democrats continued to talk to each other, and each party laid down parameters for making a deal on the deficit; even though such a deal is far off. Republicans are proposing a plan that would eliminate the deficit within 10 years by cutting spending and repealing the Healthcare Act, as well as making major changes to Medicare and Medicaid.

On the other hand, the deficit reduction plan of the Democrats would raise taxes, reduce spending less than Republicans would, and focus on stimulating short-term growth. Democrats would also authorize new spending associated with growth-related projects. The White House is seeking $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction measures over the next 10 years through increasing taxes and reducing spending, while Republicans want three times that amount.

Indicators to watch during this week include housing starts, building permits and existing home sales. Other important indicators for the week are the Index of Leading Economic Indicators and Initial Claims for unemployment compensation.

All in all, the economy turned in a solid week of economic performance led by the stock market and reinforced by a number of positive economic developments.

A Special to the Gazelle Index by Keith Jennings

After months of campaigning, presidential debates and a generally respectable electoral process, Kenya remains on edge as Uhuru Kenyatta  (son of the country’s first President Jomo Kenyatta), was declared President this week by the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). The intense conditions surrounding the elections have the country’s security forces are on high alert.

Therefore, the question of “Whither Kenya“ is relevant for the entire African continent. The election in Kenya raises questions about whether the results were credible, whether a peaceful electoral process can be implemented, whether it is rational to depend on new technologies to deter fraudulent behavior, whether ethnic politics have a useful role in democratic societies, and finally whether election outcomes in Africa are moving the continent closer or further away from its commitments under international law.

Kenya just concluded the most complex elections in its history.  The meaning and significance of the 2013 elections will be debated for some time to come.  At the beginning of the process, most Kenyans and members of the international community hoped that the Kenyan people would avoid the carnage that took place following the last presidential election in December 2007 when more than 1,400 people were killed in politically motivated ethnic violence, thousands more were injured, hundreds raped, more than 700,000 internally displaced and the Kenyan economy (a large part of which revolves around tourism and transportation) crashed.

Most would agree that had the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and other African leaders not intervened, the senseless killing could have continued on a mass level even leading to genocide. Annan’s intervention halted the violence and led to a political settlement that included the creation of the Prime Minister’s office; the development of a revolutionary constitutional reform process that resulted in the creation of new level of government; a gender requirement that not more than 2/3 of any gender should be present at any level of government; the reform of the judiciary, and much more.

c (son of the country’s first vice president, Odinga Odinga) who many analysts believed had won the 2007 elections, accepted the position of Prime Minister, knowing that he would likely be the frontrunner for the 2013 elections. In the run-up to the 2013 elections several larger coalitions emerged.  The two largest were the Coalition for the Restoration of Democracy (CORD) led by Odinga and the country’s current Vice President; and the Jubilee Coalition led by Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, both facing international Criminal Court charges for crimes against humanity that are associated with the 2007 post-election violence.

The final numbers posted on the IEBC official results board show Kenyatta winning the needed 50 + 1 by only 4,100 votes, thereby eliminating the need for a second round runoff with Railah Odinga. According to the IEBC’s final tally, with all 291 constituencies reporting, Kenyatta received 6,173,433 (50.03%) and Odinga received 5,340,546 (43.28%) of the total vote of 12,338,667. There are 14,337,399 registered voters, which indicates an 83% turnout. At the same time, the IBEC data shows that Kenyatta’s vote total was 820,000 more than what Odinga received, leading some to speculate that a run-off would not change the eventual outcome.

 However, Odinga’s supporters have argued that there were many problems with the IEBC tallying process and that the totals for each candidate on the official tally board do not add up.  In reality, the totals appear to be correct and Kenyatta by 4,000 plus votes.  The position of CORD is that if such a mistake was made then it is possible that others were made and for such an important decision, the IEBC must be certain of its “official” findings.

 The large number of rejected ballots cited as a key problem during the counting process was reduced from over 400,000 to 108,997 or from approximately 6% to 1%. According to the IEBC the earlier reading was caused by a computer error that multiplied the rejected ballots by eight, the number of presidential candidates. The IBEC’s explanation was generally accepted, as the numbers seems to match.

 Nevertheless, most parties, the media and Kenyans remained critical of the IEBC’s handling of the failed electronic poll books and the failure of the electronic transmission of the results. The failures resulted in the commission using the old manual system that is so closely associated in the past with manipulated results.

 The failures led to accusations that westerners were attempting to sabotage the process. Although this is untrue, it is likely to be the main future message of the 2013 elections.

 On March 8, 2013, Afrigon, a civil society group that focuses on governance issues, went to the high court to have the tallying stopped because the law says results have to be transmitted electronically. The High Court refused to take any action because it does not have jurisdiction over presidential elections, –the Kenyan Supreme Court has jurisdiction.

 Many speculate a Kenyatta administration may eliminate civil society opportunities because this segment was the strongest supporters of the ICC case against him. At the same time, Odinga says he will not concede defeat because the elections were flawed. Despite this, it appears that most diplomatic missions, the African Union and governments in the East Africa region are ready to recognize his victory.

Kenyans went to the polls on Monday March 4, 2013 to elect a President and many other national and local positions.  After the disputed elections in December 2007, when the incumbent refused to leave and the chair of the election commissioner said he did not know who had won, a government of national unity was formed.

The grand coalition created the position of prime minister and a revolutionary reform of the judiciary and governing structures.

Prior to the election Rahila Odinga (the current prime minister, the son of the former vice president) and Uhuru Kenyatta (the current finance minister, the son of the first president) were running neck and neck. Most polls showed their coalitions CORD and Jubilee respectfully running 44% to 44%.

Two days after most polls had closed, only a little more than 42 per cent of the official results have been posted on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC’s) website or displayed at the IEBC’s official results center.

The major political parties and their candidates have publicly complained about the slow pace of the IEBC’s release of the official election results.  Although the two main coalitions are encouraging their supporters to be patient, this is causing tensions to rise.

As the results approach 50% of the vote, Uhuru Kenyatta continues to maintain a commanding lead at 53 percent to Odinga’s 42 per cent, with approximately 5,500,000 votes having been counted. The electronic transmission system –that was supposed to guard against fraud –has broken down and now the commission will have to depend on the official signed copies of tally sheets provided by returning officers.  As one would imagine, none of the political parties, especially the two main coalitions, have confidence in the manual counting process that was at the center of rigging allegations in the past.

There have been a large number of rejected ballots– well over 400,000 (a number greater than the total number votes garnered by some presidential candidates) and rising.  This is emerging as a central issue of debate between Odinga’s coalition and the IEBC.  It has reached the highest levels as the CORD vice presidential candidate held a press conference complaining about the slow release of the results, the larger number of rejected ballots and the early celebrations of the Jubilee coalition.

The Jubilee Coalition has accused the British High Commissioner and other “foreign agents” of engineering a rigging campaign aimed at denying them a first round victory.  The British have denied any interference.  The reason for fight over the rejected ballots is the following: if the rejected ballots are counted then the percentage difference will be significantly reduced and the outcome would force a runoff.  The law is clear; in order for someone to be declared president he must win 50%+ 1 of the votes cast.  It does not say valid votes.

Thus far, all of the main international election observer missions have issued positive statements on the Kenyan electoral process..  Some criticisms were raised regarding a few  administrative problems, mainly those associated with the failure of the biometric data voter registry machines; long delays and long lines (up to 8 hours in many cases) for citizens to vote and the violence on the coast in Mombasa where 7 policemen were ambushed and killed.  The international observers also commended the security forces, the media and Kenyan citizens for the high turnout and the patience displayed, thus far.